Sun Tzu's The Art of War and Its Rules for Winning without Conflict

2. Best Opportunities and Actions > 2. Best Opportunities > 1. Potential Futures

Which of the following best describes your concerns about pursuing an opportunity?

1. I am concerned about whether or not I should risk my resources.
   3.3 Opportunity Resources

   3.3 Opportunity Resources

   "If you are too weak to fight, you must find more men.
   In this situation, you must not act aggressively."
   Sun Tzu's The Art of War 9:6:1-2
   

   Situation: 

   There is a downside in learning to see openings. We can get sucked into situations that we should avoid. An opening has power. As Aristotle first observed, a vacuum pulls us in. How susceptible we are to this problem depends upon our character, but we all have a number of natural tendencies that create the problem. The first is known simply as wishful thinking, our tendency to make decisions based upon what it is pleasing to imagine. We also tend to over estimate our own ability to restrain ourselves. In research, this problem is known as restraint bias. This problem is amplified irrational escalation, our tendency to invest more and more in a past decision, even when it creates problems for us. Pursuing opportunities without understanding the constraints of basic positioning can be extremely dangerous.

2. I am concerned about the long-term potential in pursuing my current set of opportunities.
   4.1 Future Potential

   4.1 Future Potential

   "Some commanders are not skilled in making adjustments to find an advantage.
   They can know the shape of the terrain.
   Still, they cannot exploit the opportunities of their ground."
   Sun Tzu's The Art of War 8:1:16-18
   

   Situation: 

   Making choices means eliminating existing options in the hope of discovering better future options. Our past decisions have restricted our current options. Our current decisions will restrict our future options. Every move to a new position puts us on a new path. If we get on the wrong path, we can find fewer and fewer opportunities in the future. We cannot pretend that we can always go back and correct our mistakes.

3. I am concerned about not doing anything until better opportunities arise.
   4.2 Choosing Non-Action

   4.2 Choosing Non-Action

   "There are roads that you must not take.
   There are armies that you must not fight.
   There are strongholds that you must not attack.
   There are positions that you must not defend.
   There are government commands that must not be obeyed."
   Sun Tzu's The Art of War 8:1:9-14

   Situation: 

   We must walk the line between drifting along in life and fighting useless battles. Though we may not realize it, most of the decisions that we make are choices of non-action. In many situations, choosing not to react can be the best choice. However, the habits and inertia of non-action can become deadly. It is always easier to continue doing what we have done in the past than go in a different direction. We must not act only when action is forced upon us because those situations are defined by our lack of options. We must make the choice to pursue opportunities. If is too easy to fail to act in the face of opportunity because our bias is toward non-action omission bias. These choices require a change of direction, which is hard. However, chasing after every possible opportunity doesn't lead to success either because we have limited resources and time. Danger lies in both directions.